EW bearish wedge formation in SPX and likely target

The bearish Elliott Wave formation in the SPX is looking like it already finished its peak last Friday (a week ago). With the low of Monday/Tuesday earlier this week, being the "A" wave of the first move down from that; and today's high being the "B" wave pullback up. Given this construct, then we may expect wave "C" down traveling to the area of 780 SPX. This is because 780 is the level from which the diagonal started, hence the classic minimum target of a diagonal wedge in Elliott Wave analysis. This level also happens to be the area of the lower Bollinger Band, another reason for considering it to be a reasonable target for the pullback. And the Gann angle analysis of the PTV website I visited last night, per a link provided by a commenter, shows that area to be a target based on the 1x1 Gann angles too. For that matter, it would also represent a move by the S&P 500 to test its 50-day moving average - another classic level for a pullback to seek support.

Lower levels can be possible for a pullback, but this is my effort to identify a target that's conservatively reasonable and fortunately fits with several analytical methods (making it more robust). Below is a chart for this, of the S&P 500.

(Note that this should not be deemed as a "trading or investment recommendation or advice".)

**UPDATE - after hours, I see the SPY moving to 87.01. This looks like it would be a new high for the rally (wow - the ChartsEdge weekly forecast may be "speaking" once again! as it showed a high into the end of day Friday). Whether it may be the fifth wave in the diagonal or "c"-wave part of the rally, or an expanded flat "B" wave, I don't see it as negating the case for the market to roll into a pullback with the target levels described in this post. (And - hey, T1 - looks like there may have been a reason for the rally to snuff out short positions earlier this week, unless they were quick countertrend scalps. So, the market keeps us waiting once again! Well, if the ChartsEdge forecasts work out next week as well as they did the past two weeks, then we'll have a good guide for the upcoming week when we receive and post them - that should help!)



Below is my volatility index chart of VXO, so my readers can see how it looks on the close of the day. You can see that its 50-day moving average crossed under its 200-day moving average. In a stock or index, this would be viewed as a bearish cross-under. I don't regard it that way in the volatility index, because the volatility index is mean-reverting and not susceptible to analysis based on moving averages. I mean, something that's mean-reverting will by definition have its moving averages converge more often than we'd expect for a stock or an index. What's more meaningful for it will be indicators like stochastics and, to some extent, MACD - and especially I find meaningful, the Fibonacci and trendline analysis which currently gives me confidence that the VIX is reversing from an important low.