Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Followup market comment on intraday levels in the S&P 500, equities ETF's and the VIX

Sometimes market movement around a Fibonacci retrace or extension level simply has a brief touch and reversal, sometimes it seems to need to actually overshoot, suspend like Wiley Coyote, and then reverse. Perhaps the latter happened today at that Fibonacci retrace level I described in my prior post here earlier today.

Perhaps the market also needed to move more in conjunction with the intraday cycles as indicated on the ChartsEdge daily map (posted earlier also).

Of course a huge gap was left when the market opened much lower on Monday, and there's a tendency for the market to make some attempt to "fill the gap" (whether or not the market then continues in the direction of the gap, in this case down). But not all gaps are filled, and especially not soon (it took the better part of one year for the VIX to fill a gap at 35, a feat it finally accomplished late last week).

This doesn't really answer for us what the rest of the week will look like, or what happens after this week. I've mentioned the VIX of course quite a bit recently. Below is how the volatility index looks now (actually using VXO for this particular chart, but the relative movements are very close). Daytraders should be having a great time with all the volatility! For swing trading, I've got to keep my eyes on the VIX/VXO as well as all the usual factors we take into account here. Because some bigger questions may be answered depending on how the markets behave over the next few days. This is true of equities as well as commodities (as described in the article by Tim Wood that we referenced and quoted from this past weekend).


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