There's other anecdotal evidence of improved confidence, partly from the equity markets' rally and partly from that CNN survey data I posted earlier today here. It isn't scientific, but I was fascinated to see that the ratio of those responding and agreeing with President Obama that there are "glimmers of hope" rang in at 65%, with 35% not agreeing. That ratio is very close to the Fibonacci "golden ratio" of 61.8% to 38.3%. So close, in fact, it makes me wonder if it's sort of a "wave 2" pullback of confidence, in a manner of speaking. With the likelihood that it gives way as the fundamentals present an increasingly grimmer picture over the next couple of years.
If the VIX reacts to this Economic Confidence Model interim high date as it did to the interim low date in March 2008, then we expect the VIX to rise notably. Then what? might the VIX roll over later, to fall yet lower - the inverse of when it turned up to rise higher in late 2008? Perhaps - or perhaps the fundamentals will pull it higher, just as they pulled it higher in late 2008. Either way, it's beginning to look reasonable to believe that the VIX ultimately will have significantly higher levels to visit over the next couple of years, into May 13, 2011 (which I calculate from the model's 2011.45 low date).


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