The first is triggered by something I was surprised to see as one of the "most emailed" stories this morning at Yahoo! News. Noticed this morning that one of the "most emailed" news stories at Yahoo! News is this: Market rally could trip over the bottom line. Uh oh! what can it mean when this set of questions about the rally makes such popular circulation?! I've still got to sort that one through. I'm feeling like it ranks along with family and friends raising this question - it tends to give me a queasy contrarian feeling. But I don't want to trade or make any market predictions on just that alone (after all, even if we do go into irrational mode - let's never forget the market can remain irrational longer than any investor can remain solvent!).
There's also Technicals: Where Is The Pullback? What Pullback? (Zero Hedge, 4/9/09) - and, I remember commenting in mid-March that so many were looking for a pullback then, that the market might not oblige ... well that happened (although I now believe the technicals signal it's on the way). Be sure to check out Banks Are Not Reaching Bottom - Meredith Whitney (SeekingAlpha Quick Read Apr 12, 2009) too. Tyler Durden has also posted Quantology Revisited: The Negative Convexity Implications Of Delta-Hedging at Zero Hedge this morning, and Shrinking Market Liquidity, or the Soon to Appear Black Swan of Black Swans yesterday, especially for those looking at super-technical indicators for the markets.
Meantime, I noticed that one McHugh is included in the Financial Sense News Hour audio commentary posted at www.financialsense.com/ - I don't "follow" McHugh but I grant that he's got good ideas at times, and I also note that he seems to be talking about trend changes in equities markets and in gold. It was posted yesterday but available all week long. *Update - listened, sounds like McHugh is seeing what Tony Caldaro's talking about as well - so if you're keeping up with Tony then you know what McHugh's talking about too.
That website, FinancialSense, is where I located Tim Wood. If you read his April 3 post there, A Brief Update on the Markets and Dow Theory (or if you subscribe to his updates), you know that it will be significant whether - or not - the markets rise above the January (and prior) swing highs, along with what his cycle turn indicator is saying. Personally, I consider what he's indicating, as not being inconsistent with the indications made by sources such as Tony Caldaro with his Objective Elliott Wave weekend update and Raymond Merriman in his weekly previous comments (both posted here yesterday as well).
For that matter, not inconsistent with Terry Laundry's T Theory commentary at his T Theory website this past Monday (April 6). If you noticed, Terry was looking at the bullish T potential predominantly, although he also talked about a bearish T as remaining in the picture. Will be interesting to see what Terry's got to say in his next update tomorrow. Meantime, for some fundamental thoughts on the bigger picture, there's Robert Reich: Why we are not at the beginning of the end (Robert Reich Blog). And I'm not sure how to sum up this one, but you can get an idea from the title: Government Sachs is in control (Market Watch).
Another item to put on your reading list should be the Monday Morning Outlook commentary at Schaeffer's Research site. Always a good read, and especially heading into opex (options expiration) which occurs on this Friday, April 17.
Maybe what people should start thinking about is not whether there will be a pullback out of the move up, but when it arrives, how deep will it go and how long will it last? Meaning, how and when to position for another leg up? Just something to start thinking about. Looks like that's something on the mind of one Jeff Pierce who posted If You Missed the Rally, Don't Get Trapped Now at SeekingAlpha. I'm not familiar with Jeff Pierce so I'm only pointing out that there are some who are starting to shake off the "wish I'd hung in for the full amount of this rally" blues, and thinking ahead to position for either playing the pullback, or being ready to go long (again, or for the first time) whenever a pullback is done.
Notice that it all sorta depends on your point of view, whether a pullback will be orderly (such as, to the 50% retrace to the March 6-9 lows) or something different, either choppy or - gasp - even disintegrating into new lows. Readers here know that I'm keenly interested in the late May time frame, and also that Merriman has cautioned that we may see extremes of investor sentiment ahead. I'll do my best to remain objective - something that isn't always easy to do when the market's moving strongly, I'll admit! Being forewarned should help.
Now that I'm on the topic of whether a pullback may be close at hand - Let's close with a look at the McClellan Oscillator charts for the NYSE and Nasdaq. You can see the Oscillator's choppiness confirming the underlying breadth weakening as the market action become choppy over the past couple of weeks. I've marked a few lines on the charts, showing how there's a negative divergence that may signal a pullback is close. Now we'll keep in mind the ChartsEdge forecasting indication that we may see a rise into opex Friday, so we'll see if the timing of lows/highs during the week gives head fakes (headaches) to traders as the action unfolds day by day. Between the cycles indication, and Tony Caldaro's OEW thoughts - and no doubt, we'll see soon today, what Andre Gratian suggests for market trend and Turning Points, with his weekend update! - we'll have good indications for what the market's telling us this week.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment