Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Levels to watch for the bullish case in the S&P 500

Here's a bullish case to watch in the S&P 500 (I'm using SPY for this example). You can see the volume on the down days has been less than the volume on the up days. Yesterday, price pushed above - although did not close above - the high of the preceding day. This morning, price nosed down to the 50-day simple moving average, now has gone up. There is also a parallel channel that can be drawn, and this morning's low went right to the bottom of that uptrending channel.

So the bullish case is that this channel trendline gives support, and equities would pick up momentum if price goes over yesterday's high. Price action like that should be respected. Conversely, bulls will want to watch to make sure that price doesn't fall below this uptrend channel line (and below the 50-day moving average).

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