Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Not a whole lot of "wow" for a Weird Wollie Wednesday in the markets

Today was Weird Wollie Wednesday (during the week before options expiration) - there was a little "wow" but when the closing bell rang, not a huge movement as measured by the close. Even though the market looked like a "W" which is oddly fitting! The S&P 500 index rose 1.18% on pretty good volume that was a little over yesterday's volume. Not enough to tell us whether it will be the bulls or bears who win the tug-of-war deciding which way the stock market breaks out of this range. Below is a chart of this index with weekly bars. Perhaps one of the downtrend channel trendlines is providing resistance that the index cannot push above - we'll see. Also below is a weekly chart of the banking index ($BKX) - for the day it was down somewhat. We'll still have to let it prove itself, before getting enthusiastic on this sector. The same is true for the transports (not shown) - they were up on the day, but what they shared with the banking index was poking under yesterday's lows. So unless they push above today's highs, they should still be viewed with skepticism.

Additional charts including gold, the dollar, and volatility index and technical indicators charts are also below. On the $VXO (volatility) index, that pushed down and will be interesting to see if it gets to my lower trendline, but it still didn't "break" under the prior, key support level. Right after that is the SPX:VXO ratio chart - while it's still looking positive, it will be interesting to see how it may react at the 200-day moving average that it's approaching. After that, bonds depicted via TLT - there are probably many of us rather surprised it's managed to go sideways for so long. After consolidating so long, it may make an important move whichever direction it breaks. The dollar chart ($USD) shows that the dollar cannot be counted out just yet, so I'm still harboring some hope that my diagonal idea will work out with another move (probably zigzaggy) stepping higher into late May. Last is the gold chart via GLD - maybe it will move inversely to the dollar, although that cannot be taken for granted - for now, it respected the 200-day moving average.

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