Ready for a scary look at the big trends in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other markets (gold, bonds, real estate, currencies and commodities)?

Confidence is picking up like cherry trees blossoming in springtime. Banks want to return TARP money! Mark-to-market can be alleviated like a bad headache! Budget bills are passing, world leaders are agreeing, and peace is breaking out! Go on and enjoy it while it lasts ... but we're gearing up for a big-picture look at where all the markets are really heading over the next few years. Are you ready to join us for a look at what the charts reveal? There will be a series of these charts so we'll get into all of them, set by set, this weekend. These will include equities with the flagship index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, along with other significant equities market indexes. And we'll take intensive looks also at the other markets you care about - gold, bonds, the dollar and other currencies, real estate, oil, and other commodities.

If you want a refresher on some of the background material we'll be referring to, here are a couple of pointers. We're not going to limit ourselves to Elliott Wave, earnings fundamentals and technical indicators (although those will be vital of course). We'll include other cyclic models that map out the long term path. One model we'll reference is the Armstrong business confidence model, which has indirect impacts for the markets. We gave an introduction to this model in this post: Some thoughts about cycles models (posted under the "Confidence Model-Armstrong" label here). You'll see that an important Armstrong date is right around the corner - April 23, 2009. It's indicated to be an interim high date; and the markets certainly seem to be on track for strength into that time period. Isn't it interesting that Friday, April 17 is also the options expiration (opex) date this month?

I received some material this morning indicating that Armstrong's February 2007 high didn't have to go with the high date in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (which actually occurred in October 2007, although February 2007 saw an important high). But rather, that it correlated with the top for real estate! Well, that may have been an important date for real estate, which would go with the idea of economic confidence. Isn't it also interesting that the Volatility Index (VIX) had its low point on the charts at the February 2007 time frame?!

Now, the Armstrong model showed March 20, 2008 as a significant interim low point. But real estate has continued to slide since then ... however, people are asking whether the bottom might be in, and are more optimistic with the mortgage and refinance rates being lower now. Also remember - when you look at that model, it shows those interim low and interim high dates as time markers along the path that moves into the important low point on June 18, 2011. So that will really be an important date to keep in mind. Similarly - the VIX had an important swing high points about March 20, 2008, from which it moved lower for a long time. Later, the VIX spiked into a new high (for the current time) six months later, in October 2008 2008. Since then, the VIX has been moving lower, even as most of the equity markets dropped lower into March 6-9 - something I also commented on in this post on March 6: Could Weird Wally Wednesday wander over to the weird, wooly world of cycle dates?

So the Armstrong model has clued us in that the time window around April 23, 2009 could be an important high level. Are there other indicators? Here's another: Raymond Merriman, the financial astrologer whose weekend public updates we include here (and whose site is included in the "other sites" listed at right) spoke in last weekend's column about this time frame. He identified April 18 as being significant because it's the day after "Venus turns direct." According to Merriman, Venus turning retrograde or direct has a very high correlation to the end and beginning of powerful cycles in many financial markets. He suggests being aware of which markets may be making cyclical tops or bottoms at this time, for they will be the most likely candidates for significant reversals.

There's also the Bradley model, discussed in this post: Bradley cycle charts for 2008 and 2009 (under the "Cycles on Bradley model" label here). I'm personally not confident trading just based on the Bradley model, even though I am aware some people like it. But, it does depict a generally uptrending market into the late Spring/Summer time frame this year.

Then again, there are Fibonacci time considerations, which I discussed here March 7 in this post: Fibonacci time as well as price projections can help identify probable market bottom. Since the market may have confirmed that the March time window I considered to be a 1.382-year time extension could be a valid one, then perhaps the 1.618 time window in late May might turn out to be an important one also. However, that doesn't directly implicate the April 17-23 time frame; and, I'll acknowledge that Fibonacci time windows should also be calculated with additional reference points. So we'll have to take a deeper look at that another time.

What about the good old Fed?! Let's not forget how they may affect the latter part of this month:


So we'll review these markets in more big-picture, long-term detail this weekend. For now, this gives you a heads' up as well as some pointers for information to review so you'll know what we're referring to with some of these models.