Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Sentiment measured in three time frames for put/call ratio sentiment on S&P 500 and equities markets

Market evaluation can be helped by looking at different time frames, so why not look at sentiment as measured by the options equity put/call ratio ($CPCE) on different time frames too? Below are daily, weekly, and monthly charts of this sentiment indicator. You can see that it's been pushing down to a relative extreme on the daily chart (probably consistent with the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model we've been discussing quite a bit lately, with its time window April 17-20 or this general time frame of mid- to late April). In fact, it looks like it may be bouncing from the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. That might be enough to send it higher, at least to the 20-day moving average midline of the Bollinger Band range (or more, sooner or later). The weekly and monthly charts look different, largely because they record weekly and monthly closes. Comparing against those, it looks like the put/call ratio may not be at a complete extreme, but is "pushing the envelope" so to speak. But the indicators on all three charts indicate that sentiment does seem to be pushing relative extremes. I don't know that it's enough to put in a sell signal yet, especially given the good volumes in the S&P 500 on up days recently. But this along with the advance/decline indicators flagging (see the $NYAD chart at bottom), shows that we're getting close to an interim top sell signal in equities markets.

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