Thoughts on today's last-minute spike in equities; and putting it all together with bonds, commodities, currencies, and technical indicators

The 15-minute chart shows a spike right at the end of the day to push the market higher. Are we to think that Timmy and Benny are helping to support the markets? Or for that matter, are we supposed to care? Anyway, the ChartsEdge daily map was good most of the day but then that spike helped the markets turn up to close positive. Well, it still fits with the ChartsEdge weekly that forecast a high point into late Friday. Let's see if that gets us a new rally high, or just an interim push up. Given my read of the volatility index, readers here know that I'm skeptical about new rally highs and rather expecting the pullback.

Keep in mind, this is ONLY a 15-minute chart, and the high shown from yesterday is still well under Friday's high. You can get a better perspective from the daily chart (below).

Also below are charts of the banking index, and the transports. The Dow Transports have pulled back, after making me think they might want to get to 3300. Buying volume looked good over the past couple of weeks, but today volume was very meager on the move up. If it drops along with the expected pullback in equities, then bulls will need to keep the transports from moving to new lows - because we already know that inability by the transports to hold their 200-month moving average that's in the vicinity of 3000 would be quite bearish.

Often the markets will do something different from what most people are "expecting." Most people are expecting that the rally gives out soon, if it hasn't already, and then we get a nice pullback that everybody can pile onto and ride to wonderfully higher levels. Okay ... maybe! What would be the surprises that cause this scenario not to happen? One would be that the pullback doesn't come and the market just marches on higher. (I'm doubting that.) Another would be that the pullback deteriorates into new lows. (I'm leaving open the possibility this happens - let the market prove one way or another.) Yet another would be that the pullback turns into an ugly, boring, options-premium killing, frustrating, meandering, "sideways" looking pullback that drags out for weeks. (I'm leaving open the possibility for this too, even though I'm not sure how the Elliott Wave analysts would "count" it.) Yuck! We'll have to keep on looking at the volatility index and the technical indicators to help us read what we're getting.

I'll intersperse some other comments with the additional charts below.

The VXO has remained above some support although it was pushed back again by its 20 dma.

The "commodities bull" in oil is either dull - I'm sleepy now!! LOL! OR - it may be non-existent. Re-read that article by Tim Wood that I quoted from, over the weekend here. Point being, the commodities sector does NOT "have to" rally higher. So be careful, Will Robinson!

Conversely the "bonds bear market" shown by TLT is still dull, but teasing to take another leg down - or is it just a head fake and then bonds move up again?! Similar question for the dollar, it definitely moved down but still above my trendline so I cannot call it bearish yet. Similar question in reverse for gold - it made what looks like a double bottom at its 200-day moving average (which should be bullish) and then has moved up. But has the volume been enough to say it's entering a third wave up to much higher levels? We need at least to see it clear moving average resistance; otherwise, I can remain skeptical on gold for now.

Point being, a lot of people think bonds are going to go down again, and same with the dollar; and that oil, and gold, will spike much higher. I'm tending to think the other way, just for now. But I'll remain as unbiased as I can, and just let these markets demonstrate to me where they're going to move next.

On the dollar chart ($USD), if the dollar moves under my uptrending support line, then it will be saying my diagonal up idea should be set aside in favor of something more immediately bearish for the dollar. As for the euro chart ($XEU), kinda the opposite of the dollar, right?

The NYAD and TRIN charts are making me wonder if the market is really trying to work off an overbought condition by consolidating "sideways." Except, I'm not really convinced that's the truth of where the markets are and where they are heading. But we can respect the obvious, that equities are not dropping into serious pullback levels yet. Indeed we may first have to get beyond whatever Friday brings.