Time to look at the Yen again, and the Dollar-Yen

When I started looking at the yen early this year, I saw the potential for $XJY to move to new all-time highs but also that if it broke down from the apparent triangle then it would fall to levels around 99. It did break and go there, but now it's time to look again at its next move. I'm informed that there are cycles reasons to think that $XJY may start moving up again into a time frame that starts in July this year, and even that we may be seeing a reversal time window right now. I'm also informed that a dollar-yen quote that closes above 1.10 could negate that possibility (that dollar-yen quote is along an axis that's inverse to how the $XJY chart displays). Let's see what my $XJY charts are saying now.

Looking at the daily chart below, it's evident from just a simple chart reading that if it moves above 106, or especially 106.88, then it can be expected to move higher because it will have broken above the swing high of late March. Its bounce from the 200-day moving average (similar to its bounce from its 50-week moving average) does look bullish, especially as it traveled above its 50-day moving average yesterday. If the potentially significant time window that's occurring this weekend means that it reverses down, then we'll obviously have to see whether it can remain above its 200-day moving average. But if this time window was already "met" by the jump yesterday, then we might expect to see it continue up. I'm not sure how to read the time window, but it is evident that the $XJY chart position looks positive especially if it remains above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. (Meaning that the dollar-yen quote would fall lower, even under .80 if my idea works out of the $XJY moving to higher levels above 120).

On my monthly chart, you can see that $XJY has remained in an uptrend channel (it could even have poked lower and remain within it). What does this mean for the dollar? Well, I already posted yesterday another look at my chart of the dollar. I think it can remain possible for the dollar still to move up - and maybe that means $XJY reverses down again - for a while, into the end of May. But if the dollar decides to break under its channel I showed again yesterday, then that may be another signal that $XJY wants to continue moving up without a reversal down in this time window.

At least we know to be alert right now, and even into early May. After that, if my charts are on the right timing track, then we may need to take another in-depth look at the end of May.