VIX's drop into gap fill target has also met long-time Fibonacci retrace level target

Here's another point in our recent set of posts about the volatility index into this cycle time window, and it's a great one because of the long-time targets involved. The volatility index as measured by VIX has just closed a gap that we and others have been looking at for literally many months now. That gap occurred in October 2008, and was filled just under the 35 level. A little lower will also touch and perhaps "tie off" a long-time Fibonacci .786 retrace that's at 33.81. If we see that, it may help provide a catalyst for a trend change that converges with other methods pointing to a possibility of a change. **Update - as of 2:00 pm, VIX has now dropped to 33.79 and therefore met the Fibonacci retrace level. This can be a target level for a reversal. See the note I added below, about a potential C=A level at 33.17. It can often occur with a Fibonacci retrace that price will move just beyond it, and then exhibit a trend reversal pattern that triggers and moves back across the Fibonacci level. So it will also be nice and neat if VIX touches 33.17 (maybe Monday) and then reverses back above 33.81. Either way, this places the VIX at a key potential reversal level - just in synchronicity with the cycles time window!


Personally I am also finding it very interesting that my SPX:VXO ratio chart is closing in on its 200-day moving average at this same time frame. While I'm not yet using this chart as a predictive tool, as with the VIX/VXO and other charts, the usual significance of this key moving average looks like it's confirming the possibility of a trend change likely in the works:


**Update - Another note for my wave-counting friends - check out that there can be an "ABC" count as I've marked on my VIX chart, where C=A at 33.17. If it happens, it would be a classic undercut of the Fibonacci retrace level, where a reversal that turns back above the 33.81 retrace would be a classic trigger.