Friday, May 22, 2009

Does the dollar's low today mark a turning point in many markets?

I don't like to go out on a limb at this blogspot, since the market has plenty of curve balls to throw out and so it takes plenty to stay on top of shifting indicators, etc. But today, I think it is significant that the dollar met my symmetry objective when it hit a low, at 79.80. If this holds, then I believe this may indeed mark a turning point for equities, dollar, gold, euro, and probably yen and other markets. No guarantees mind you, but the pieces seem to be coming together now for these key levels. Personally, my thought is that the dollar stabilizes either from here, or perhaps a bit lower so long as it remains above 76.77. The scenario that I see with this is bearish for equities, gold, and the euro, and quite possibility for other commodities at least in dollar-denominated terms.

If I am wrong then the dollar will continue to fall under 76.77, gold and probably euro will skyrocket, and equities probably way up but maybe way down, I could make an argument either way. Which way the yen goes, that's another interesting one and I should update that chart too. Would expect it to use this as a turning point too, just my best guess on that one.

I could also be wrong a third way, and that is with the dollar and other markets not making an important turning point here, but just waving off in their separate directions. I just have to point this all out, because I don't want anyone to take it as written in concrete just because I voiced this opinion.

It's just because I do feel rather strongly about this based on all that I can see - so I don't want readers to be uncertain about my point of view on these markets as they are looking today.

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