Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Fear cheaper again today - VIX to 24.78 now looking possible

It's days like today that call for fine-tuning trendlines so that's what I just did on the closeup of my weekly VIX chart. Lower uptrending channel support does permit VIX to seek out that lower Fibonacci retrace level of 24.78 if it does so soon. The trendline support looked more like 26 or 27, but it can allow lower. Given that the VIX has been heavy at the 33.82 level, this shouldn't be so surprising. What is interesting is that it's doing this when the equity indices haven't yet moved above their highs of almost two weeks ago. There have been many examples in which VIX made a higher low while equities made new highs (October 2007), or a lower high while equities made new lows (March 2009). So I'm not ready yet to weigh in on whether this means that equities are more likely to move higher in the rally, or that complacency will reach a low and the reaction from that will be more bearish for equities.


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