Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Followup on the Euro - this can be a trigger sell day for the Euro, so watch these levels

Recently I posted a chart depicting an apparent triangle in the Euro. Today we see it moving under yesterday's low. It is also in between key moving averages - the 200-day MA still above, the 50-day MA below (and the 20-dayMA which is also the Bollinger Band midline, also below with the bands narrowing). The weekly and monthly charts also show this consolidation pattern to be an important area, as I've marked on those charts (see below). Today's movement can be a trigger sell day for swing traders in this currency, given this chart setup. Since the most recent high was at 134.22, it can be used as a "stop" level (referring to stop loss protection). I mentioned some potential targets just based on the triangle pattern, in my prior post. Depending on the bigger picture, there may be other potential levels lower for the Euro.

Note that if it moves above 134.22, then we cannot view the recent high as the "e" wave of a triangle. Also, higher levels as indicated in my prior post here depicting this, can invalidate the triangle and turn it into a "triangle trap" instead.



(click on a chart to see it display in a larger size)

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