Thursday, May 14, 2009

Is that the rally that was? Old charts becoming new again in S&P 500, banking index and Dow Transports

As talking heads discuss whether this has been just a bear market rally or the start of a new bull market, it turns out that some of my "old" charts from weeks or in a couple of cases, months ago are looking interesting again. Below are my weekly S&P 500 (SPX) and banking index (BKX) charts; and one of my monthly SPX plus my monthly Dow Transports charts. These show that, not only did these indices hit resistance last week at some of the key Fibonacci levels, but they also are starting to look vulnerable again at trendlines and other indicator levels. I've pointed out for a long time now that the indices do not look as bullish now as they did at the 2002/2003 lows, and the monthly charts continue to bear that out. This doesn't mean that we cannot have more upside - it just means that it's premature at best, and misleading at worst, to claim that the charts show enough market strength to prevent going back to the lows.

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