Thursday, May 7, 2009

Notes on this morning's action in equities and related indicators

Quick notes as I do not have time to make and post charts right now. Citigroup tried this morning but did not get above $4.48, so it has NOT yet broken out. Maybe it will, maybe not - don't be a hero, let the chart tell you where it wants to go. Equities have moved down sharply after the Dow Industrials reversed down from the Fibonacci level I just mentioned in my prior post. They will have to regain that ground to stay in bullish mode for now. But the VIX has moved significantly above the 33.81 level that we are using as a guidepost for the markets.

So far, it looks like the market may be pulling back from overbought levels. I don't want to get too bearish too quickly to say that the market might retest the March lows. Let's just see the obvious, that the various indicators and "tells" that we and others have been putting forward, are showing that the pullback many have been looking for may be starting.

If the markets say otherwise, we'll have to respect that. For now, we and others will be looking to whether or not a reversal pattern shows itself. If you aren't familiar with reversal patterns, you can check my traders education site (NB3, see link at right), where I think I have some discussion of that. And I will try to post some more discussion of those at that site soon. Obviously, Stockcharts.com and other sites also have information on what a reversal pattern looks like - the basics are looking for lower lows and lower highs to start manifesting, along with the technical indicators also crossing and rolling over. (This is in the case of a reversal to go downward, which is after all what we are talking about for equities markets right now, when looking for a substantial pullback.)

Update PS - I get the weird feeling that the ChartsEdge daily map for today may have inverted. I don't know if that's really the case - just saying it based on how it looks versus the actual movement in S&P 500 so far. I'm personally going to either set it aside, or see it as a potential inversion, for the rest of the day today - that's just my own personal feeling about it, not speaking for ChartsEdge.

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