Friday, May 15, 2009

Pictures of what concerns me in the charts of the S&P 500 equity market index

Below are daily and weekly charts of the S&P 500. On the daily chart I drew a set of trendlines that form a parallel channel. I believe this is similar to trendlines being charted out by Andre Gratian, and will look forward to his update to post here this weekend. Meantime, it looks like the index this afternoon went down to test the lower line, which is also very close to testing the 876 number that Tony Caldaro mentioned in his Objective Elliott Wave update last evening. It looks like the index tested the upper line about three times, and the technical indicators have been moving down. This morning I posted the McClellan charts that similarly showed the McClellan Oscillator moved under the zero line for the NYSE and Nasdaq equity markets. The weekly chart is also concerning. It looks like price just barely edged under the low of last week. Meanwhile the indicators began to fall off, with the faster-moving ones already crossing down. Will the index continue to drop and see the slower-moving indicators confirm a downswing on the weekly charts? I think that the probabilities are that will happen.

It also would not be surprising to see price bounce somewhat next week, treating the movement to the lower channel line I marked on the daily as something of a test before "deciding" which way to go. But when I say it wouldn't be surprising, that doesn't mean such a bounce would be guaranteed. Alternative Elliott Wave counts remain in play. Now, maybe that's what isn't surprising, because I find that the market closes each week in a way that usually leaves some questions about the Elliott Wave pattern. So it goes! No doubt it will add to the discussions posting here this weekend. Enjoy your Friday evening and have a great weekend!


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