Thoughts on the U.S. dollar, technical analysis and Nasdaq sentiment to close the day

As the VIX managed to remain above 33.81 again today, the dollar similarly managed to remain above my support trendline on the daily chart of $USD (see below). Looking at the Fibonacci retrace levels on my monthly chart of $USD, one might think that it already got close enough to that .382 retrace or that it can remain above the trendline and still get right to it. I learned today that some have a resistance level for the dollar at 80.50 and that looks about right, but we'll see if it can't get to the other numbers I've mentioned - the .382 on the monthly, the 92 Fibonacci extension I calculated many weeks ago, or a slightly higher level about 94-95 I calculated and mentioned more recently. Dollar strength seems to correlate to equities weakness in the current markets, so you can guess that I'm looking at this as a signal whether equities continue to rally or not. Here's another sentiment measure too - the bullish percent ratio. The indicators on the bullish percent chart for SPX ($BPSPX) look like bearish divergence, but not on the one for the Nasdaq Composite ($BPCOMPQ), below. For fun, I decided to see if there's a C=A symmetry in the level reached today, since visually it looks like that. (When I display it without the log scale.) Yes, it poked just above that symmetry number. I don't know that a C=A idea works for this ratio, but it was just fun to verify.

Bullish percent at the lows in late 2008 were lower than in 2003. Then again, it was higher in 2004 than at the highs in 2007. I'm not prepared to draw conclusions about those aspects - I'm just pointing out that bullish percent is getting overbought. It hasn't turned over yet. Keep an eye on it though, because it shouldn't be much longer before it does roll over.