Triangle, or triangle trap? - levels to watch whether the Euro will break out, or break down soon

The Euro looks like it's been tracing out a triangle on the weekly chart. If this is a "standard" triangle and it breaks to the downside, then it can point the Euro down to 117.5 as an initial objective. In order to remain within this setup, it should remain under the horizontal resistance line at 137.50, and must remain under both the upper line at 142.5 and the spike poked up at 143.77. Notice that this consolidation or congestion pattern is unfolding around the 200- week moving average. This lends support to the idea that whichever way the Euro breaks out of the pattern - whether to the downside, or the upside - is likely to be an important movement.

I posted a quick note about the dollar at my UBTNB3 site and we'll have to see whether the dollar's weakness today displayed via the ETF called "UUP" will "break" the trendline pattern I've been seeing in $USD. If the Euro comes out of this apparent triangle to the downside this should prove good for the dollar bullish case. Of course, the converse is also true.