Triangulating on Citigroup - will it break to the upside?

Citigroup has been moving sideways in a triangle, which can be interpreted either bearishly or bullishly. The volume looked good today on the move up. This hints that it might rise above $4.48, the most recent high point in that triangle consolidation. If it does, it looks like a breakout that can take Citigroup to $8 or a bit higher, aiming for its 200-day moving average (see chart below). The risk would be that this remains part of the triangle and that instead, Citigroup moves under the consolidation's low levels. That makes $2.25 a level that Citi should remain above, in order to avoid risk of re-testing its lows.

For that matter, Citi should also remain above its 50-day moving average in order to support a breakout here. The indicators don't yet confirm that the push up yesterday is part of a new rally leg up. Price just touched up to the upper Bollinger Band, and those bands were still contracting yesterday. A breakout above $4.48 would see the bands expanding as the upper one is literally pushed upward. The indicators below the chart would also start a determined move upward. The 200-day moving average is still declining, so it's reasonable to exercise some caution - the main part of which would be, to allow a break out above $4.48 to occur before committing to a swing looking for upside movement. Above $4.48 starts looking toward a little above $7, or a bit above $8, as well as the 200-day moving average which is currently somewhat above $9. Citi's price hasn't yet been above to move above chart resistance at the prior swing high levels, but the volume bars on recent moves up shows that someone considers it possible. Either that, or there's been some serious short covering. Once again, remaining above $2.25 is very important for a bullish case on Citi's stock. So if you're thinking it's heading up to higher levels, be sure to allow the chart to prove itself by moving above $4.48 first.

So, there are reasons to think that Citigroup will break to the upside out of this triangular consolidation, but the right thing to do is allow this to prove itself by doing that before piling on.