VIX and bonds both lower this morning

VIX and TLT (an ETF for US Treasury bonds) both moved lower this morning. Here are daily and hourly charts for both. It's been suggested that bonds may have put in their low - if that is the case then they will move back above their 20 day exponential moving average (EMA), so to be conservative I will look for that to happen (as it hasn't happened yet). The hourly chart of TLT looks rather weak, so I'm thinking it's reasonable to look for a pullback at least and wait until the hourly chart shows signs for moving up before getting more bullish on bonds. Of course I had been thinking TLT would get to my target levels, so I'll still hold out hope for that. But I'll use the hourly chart indicators and the daily chart's 20 day EMA to see if TLT won't get there before moving higher.

As for the VIX - these charts speak for themselves. The hourly obviously down this morning, but as readers know I am skeptical that it means anything other than getting ready for a move higher in VIX and lower in equities. VIX has a normal tendency to move down a bit on Fridays. If it goes so low as to do another touch down on my daily chart's trendline, that will just add another clue to the idea that VIX is positioning to move higher. (But of course, I'll remain wary because of my other projection for VIX to 24.80, so this idea does need a relatively tight leash.)


(click on a chart for full-size image)