VIX might give this small reverse head & shoulders setup another try

The volatility index measured by VIX moved down today, especially this afternoon as it tumbled down to a kissback of the steeply downtrending line it had broken above yesterday on my daily VIX chart (second chart, below). It passed up the opportunity to play out a reverse head and shoulders setup in its hourly chart (first chart below), as it tested up this morning but failed to move above 34.09. If it continues lower, the first thing I will look for will be another touch down to the lower channel line as I've marked onto the VIX daily chart. That alone could be a catalyst for another bounce up in the VIX - and it could happen, since the VIX has a natural tendency to droop most Fridays. Then again, tomorrow being opex could make things more interesting. Also, we know that the ChartsEdge weekly cycle forecast didn't exactly play out to the price levels depicted last weekend, but the cycle timing did come into play to some extent, including the rise today. If that forecast continues to be significant tomorrow, don't forget that it forecast a steep drop for Friday - that type of reaction would lend credence to the idea that VIX's drop today was just a kissback of that steep downtrend line that could launch VIX to higher levels. That's the scenario I am leaning toward - so I'll be interested to see whether VIX plays out that way from here. The hourly chart's indicators are close to rolling up again, and the daily chart's indicators are showing some positive divergence. So the indicators say it's reasonable to expect.

There may be some who see the VIX shaping up in the hourly chart as a triangle, with the movement down today as the resulting downward thrust that would continue tomorrow. I don't see it as a classic Elliott Wave triangle. But obviously, if VIX breaks under 31.19 then it's saying it wants to test lower. In addition to my comments about my trendlines, I've got a projection to 24.80 if the VIX doesn't get support at the levels it has already tested. I'm not expecting VIX to go there, but if it does then of course I won't stand in its way. Conversely, if the VIX moves up then we might think that a reverse head and shoulders becomes viable again and a move above 34 would typically gain some momentum.

Yes, I had thought that the recent day up followed by moving above the sharply downsloping trendline would propel the VIX higher already. But the prospect for that hasn't broken - yet. Therefore we need to keep a close eye right now on the 31.19 level. If the VIX remains above it and then moves over 34, then we might see some action from it.