Tuesday, May 19, 2009

VIX not Fibbing with us - now it's looking for a bright line

VIX can be interpreted as either completing another movement down in a diagonal wedge on my daily chart. Maybe all it wants is to really touch down once more onto the lower trendline on my daily chart (below). At any rate, it certainly has not yet reversed from the 33.81 level that the Fibonacci retrace on the long-term chart. We can still respect the fact that it reached that Fib level around the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model's April time window, but must also acknowledge that something else is also going on. Whether you chalk it up to Elliott Wave, or the Bradley model, or my Fibonacci time zones (as when I posted March 7, that was a 1.382 year extension from the October 2007 peak and could point to the end of May (or mid-May to mid-June time period) as the 1.618 year extension from that peak; or even influences as described by Raymond Merriman. So, does the VIX want to go down to the 24.78 area that would be another Fibonacci retrace? Perhaps ... but there's also another long-term trendline coming into focus now, on my VIX charts.

Below are an hourly chart of VIX, my daily VIX chart, and my rather busy long-term VIX chart. You can see there is an uptrend line on my long-term chart and it is starting to look like VIX is pointing toward a rendez-vous with that trendline which would be roughly the 27 area. I've added at the bottom a closeup of this in both the weekly line chart, and the same using candlesticks. Interestingly the lower Fib level is also near the 200 week MA.



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