The second chart below is something new - a ratio chart of VXX to VXZ. VXX is the new VIX exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks a one-month VIX future maturity; VXZ is the ETF that tracks the five-month maturity. I decided a ratio chart would be interesting to see a snapshot of complacency for the near-term versus the short term. Perhaps not surprisingly, it's showing this ratio as also digging to a low. It looks like there may be positive divergence on this ratio too. For that matter, I can think that it displayed a five-wave pattern down; but perhaps this only tells us that short-term and longer-term complacency are due to converge more closely.
Also below are Tony Caldaro's charts of the VIX (daily and weekly), and CPC (weekly) for an additional snapshot of sentiment. There are slight, slight hints of positive divergence in the VIX charts, although not glaring. I do think these charts provide additional reasons for "dancing close to the door" as that one analyst says of the equity markets. So a reversal pattern in the charts of the VIX and the equity markets may not be too far away ... we'll just have to continue to keep an eye out for such a reversal pattern to confirm. There is a slight tendency for the VIX to rise a bit on Mondays and fall a bit on Fridays (apparently as traders take out "insurance" for the trading week and then relinquish it), so we'll have to look past small squiggles like that. Either Monday would have to be a strong movement up, or Tuesday would provide an initiating move up, and then we'd look for followthrough if VIX moves above nearby lines marking the upper bound of its recent channel descent.





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