Remember all those posts I made about bonds, first as they were dropping into that big consolidation, and then as they dropped out of it for another leg down? I remember posting many times, pointing to symmetry targets for the long bonds ($USB), Treasury notes ($UST), and the ETF called TLT. I finally got quiet as they moved into my target zone! Let's take a quick look - notice that the good bounce already has moved them into position where they can go for the 50% retracement I mentioned as one likely objective. Volume really picked up in TLT at those lows and the beginning part of the bounce, too, confirming that bond traders also decided it was time to switch from short to long. It's interesting to see that $USB has put in a higher high already, while the T-note ($UST) hasn't. TLT has done so, and is just slightly under its VWAP (volume weighted average price). Getting to a 50% retracement will mean making an effort toward the 200-day moving average. It's too early (for me at least) to discern from the price wave movement whether bonds will move impulsively in a manner that suggests actual new highs, versus (more likely) a good correction upward before bonds roll over again to lower levels. For now, they are doing all right, and we'll want to see them respect their recent swing lows. The classic stop level would be just under the lows of early June (although I recognize that some like to keep a tighter stop level, or to assess using short-term moving averages now that bonds have already put in a good first bounce).


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