Levels to look for in the S&P 500 today and near-term based on technical analysis, Elliott Wave, cycles and Fibonacci

What a difference a day makes, eh folks? Or ... does it? From an Elliott Wave perspective, we've seen that the most likely count down from two weeks ago, should be labeled as a wave 1 and its wave 2 either completed or yet to complete. I showed that in a post here yesterday (and had mentioned it as a possibility in the morning on the basis of how that ChartsEdge daily map looked). If you've read Tony Caldaro's Thursday update (at his site or using his site's feed, both of which are shown with links at the right side of the page here), you know what levels he's referring to in connection with a further move up today - not just his 925 pivot but also 927 as the prior fourth wave level (a classic Elliott Wave objective for a pullback like this), and 935 as another pivot/resistance level he's been referring to. Subscribers to Andre Gratian's analytics also have his information on cycles, trend and turning points and projections. Speaking of cycles, I also study up on those on my own, although not my specialty, and it's my understanding that a cycle low would have bottomed but it's now a question whether the move up out of that will be sufficient to carry equities to higher levels for the rally up. Sounds consistent with what we're looking at, and also with the general idea that many are seeing which is a "head and shoulders" formation with a neckline that would be triggered at the recent lows (actually yesterday's lows for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which "looks heavier", and different levels for SPX and Nasdaq - and definitely triggered under the lows of the month of May). Speaking of the May lows, if the indices were to go under those before the end of June, that would look like a bearish engulfing bar on the monthly chart. Not a prospect that bulls would like to see. Given that we're still considering this time window to be a low (even on the ol' Bradley) and there's window dressing to be considered next week for the end of month, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out with attempts to hold up the market countering the headwinds the market's facing now.

Below I marked onto the hourly SPX chart many of the ideas I've been referring to, along with target levels associated with most of them.



Based partly on Elliott Wave and partly on the rally high having occurred almost right on a Fibonacci/Gann 90 days from the March lows, as well as the P&F (default) projections to Dow 8000 and SPX 850, I'm inclined to think that this is indeed only a wave 2 pullback up that will roll over again. But of course, we won't have verification of a trigger day down unless and until the markets move under yesterday's low - or assuming we poke a new high today (such as to 925 or 927 or higher), then it would have to be the next trading day going under today's low.

The indicators definitely improved, but from a swing trading perspective not enough to place equities into a bullish posture. For example, I checked the McClellan charts last night and while the Oscillator moved up, it did not break my downtrend line I've marked onto it, nor did it touch up to the zero line. (The Summation Index did not move up although one could say its slope leveled somewhat.)

Good luck out there, be careful as always - remember it's Friday so get into position where you can enjoy your Friday evening! - and happy market navigating!