Not feeling the love with gold, OR silver - both are threatening to break chart support

I'm not feeling the love with gold! Readers here for a while know that we were going up with it and nailed its projection to 1000 (actually it edged over that to 1007, but pretty close!); and since then have been evaluating whether it's going to meet bullish projections higher to 1192 (maybe someday when it's ready, above 1400), or conversely, a bearish "C" wave down that might take down as low as $550. If the U.S. wins the "race to the bottom" by devaluaing the dollar below its recent support, then the picture may change. Then there's information like this, US Approves IMF Gold Sales; What Does It Mean? (courtesy of Mike "Mish" Shedlock, posted at Phil's Stock World, 6/24/09 (nice site but seems less about stocks than options...? in terms of actual trades...)). Apparently he's thinking in terms of pullback or consolidation as well, which is especially interesting coming from him. At any rate, my views are based on Elliott Wave interpretations and to some extent Fibonacci, so that's why my more bearish sentiment nowadays seems confirmed as gold is having trouble holding the newest set of uptrend lines (first chart below). My weekly view of gold (second chart below) looks to be telling the same story. If this were the bullish view, second wave of a larger 3rd wave up, then it really needs to get itself together and move on up! Otherwise, from the bearish perspective, if it's finished part or all of a first and second wave of a 3rd wave down, then look out below.

I know some have been thinking in terms of gold doing a "reverse head and shoulders" - I'm not buying that idea, but if you are, then you've got to agree it cannot fall below the support/resistance pivot where the "right shoulder" formed at about 850/860. The other point of view could be a triple top on the weekly. Now, if gold were to fall to that support/resistance pivot quickly, it could do that and still remain within the larger uptrend channel lines on my weekly chart. Maybe it could still be working out the "c" of an "abc" second wave for the more bullish count - will see!

I've started review of silver, with a weekly chart of the ETF (SLV) (see last chart below). It looks much weaker than gold, and also has fallen off after hitting resistance recently. The volumes definitely picked up with the recent drop, which is bearish. I haven't assigned probable Elliott Wave counts. It does look like it can share the overall bearish count for gold, namely a large, complex-correction wave A, followed by a B wave up to resistance. That would leave the next movement as wave C down, likely lasting into next year. After completing a low like that, both silver and gold should be a fantastic buy. They may not complete their respective lows at exactly the same time, so we'll try to wade in long with each one when its time is right.