Saturday, July 4, 2009

Bears get ready: Cycles master from ChartsEdge issues warning, equities markets to turn lower after this Monday, July 6

The cycles master from ChartsEdge, Mike Korell, has issued a bearish warning for equities markets that we need to pay attention to. Readers here know how uncannily predictive the daily and weekly forecasts from ChartsEdge have proven, day in day out and over time. They do an especially good job of pointing to cycle timing, which is what we're really supposed to use them for. They often provide the bonus of pointing to the relative price movement, such as when higher highs or lower lows are likely. Mike incorporates methods to integrate numerous timed cycles in equities markets, as described at the http://www.chartsedge.com/ site as well as the remarkable daily maps described at www.ChartsEdge.com/wp (links always at right; and I've included much of that discussion at my "No Bull No Bear No Bias" education site, also shown in links at right). So once you've read up on how he generates the forecasts as chart pictures, you can appreciate that he allows the images to speak for themselves every week and each day. At least, normally that's the case.

On Thursday, he issued an excerpt of a discussion about how the daily maps and weekly forecasts are "fitting together" including from a swing trader's perspective. Frankly it sounds like it confirms what I've been suspecting, that his cycles work is tending to confirm the downward-pointing Objective Elliott Wave count consistent with Tony Caldaro's work. (Which by the way, I'll post with Tony's weekend update shortly after posting this.) Here's what Mike said:

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An excerpt from discussion of today’s chart.
Posted: July 2nd, 2009
Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map Comments to ChartsEdge »

Monday and a swing trade.
As I mentioned a few days ago, I am looking for this rally to go out with a whimper. The setup for trending days is not to be.
I will not have all of the data for a daily chart for Monday until after the close today, but I do have partial data. What I have is bullish through the day, but that does not mean I will be taking a long position.

The swing cycle will have rolled over by Monday. That indicates that the larger bias will be to the downside. The best bets will be when the daily chart shows moves lower in conjunction with this larger bias indicator.

The long-term weekly chart from last weekend shows today lower and some recovery on Monday. That is all in line with the BP data [used for the daily maps] that I have for today and the partial data set for Monday.

All-in-all the plan for the next swing trade is coming together as all the cycle indicators join together in a common theme.

Put out the welcome mat… Goldilocks is coming for dinner!

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