Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Equities markets as shown on these charts aren't giving much hope of avoiding H&S neckline break

Dow 8000 anyone? and will that be enough to satisfy the bears and finish a head and shoulders low, allowing the bulls to take the market higher? Perhaps, but there are a lot of eyes on this, and certainly many wondering just where this market will go. If you've been trying to following the twists and turns of the ChartsEdge swing-trading (weekly) forecasts, especially since they've issued some comments that have gone one way and then the next - it's obvious there are some real cross-currents in these markets! My best advice is to take it easy, keep an eye on the big picture, and use the Elliott Wave counts, Fibonacci, and other inputs you may be receiving from great analysts like Andre Gratian or Tony Caldaro. (Yes, I tweet intraday, but I don't hold myself out as on a par with those guys! - I just use what I perceive based on EW, Fibonacci, moving averages, and keeping an eye across the market sectors intraday - nothing very intense.) You can look back at the ChartsEdge weekly forecast in this post from the weekend, ChartsEdge week-ahead cycle forecasts for S&P 500 (U.S. equities markets) and gold. I'll look forward to checking out Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave update, and then keeping up with what Andre Gratian is circulating to his subscribers as well. For myself, I posted a chart intraday of the Dow Transports showing a way to view a head and shoulders neckline. Then just a few minutes ago, I saw someone suggest there is a triangle in the transports. I made some notes about that in my bigger Dow Transports chart, below. The only way I can see it as a valid EW triangle would be in a "B" wave position, but the indicators and the overall larger pattern doesn't suggest to me that's what it is. I won't absolutely reject it, but I would not adopt it as my primary count either. If it were in a "B" wave position suggesting a "C" wave up, there would be more positive divergence in the indicators. Well, what if it's a 4th wave triangle? The structure of the rally up from March doesn't suggest to me that it completed a wave 1,2 and 3 that would place this as a 4th wave triangle, especially given the dimensions of it at this point. But hey, we don't need to argue about it - we can just observe how it acts with respect to these trendlines, they're clear enough! Also, below, I've placed how my SPX daily chart looks now, and added a Dow Industrials chart with markings. Notice that 3 of these major indices is at trendline support for a head and shoulders.... ooops, did I say all 3? Actually more like 2 out of 3, as the Industrials moved underneat that. As for the Nasdaq, it moved under prior swing low support but may not have violated H&S neckline support quite yet. But all in all, the market movements are suggesting that the targets now are to the downside, and with some more breaking of support we'll be focusing more on whether we see only the H&S targets, or something more bearish in the weeks ahead.

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