If the S&P 500 has a goal at Fibonacci 961, but market cycles may - or not - have peaked this past week, then do you know where your portfolio is?

The bull vs. bear debate sharpened over the past several weeks, and as I've remarked recently, I for one don't feel complacent about "selecting" either a bullish or bearish view for next week. Raymond Merriman had made remarks a few weeks ago about a "fog" that would clear up, and then yesterday about the cycle up not affording a revisit to last week's lows anytime soon. This would appear to be similar, perhaps, to Andre Gratian's projections, as well as Tony Caldaro's alternative OEW count - but I don't want to speak for them of course! Not to mention Terry Laundry's T Theory "bullish T" update as I've mentioned. Pending hearing from Tony, and Andre, on their updates this weekend, I'm going to offer some observations of my own, below. First, I'm going to refer back to a prior post I made here back on June 27, Divergence appearing in the predictions by different technical analysis methods now making us more alert as shown in these charts. When I went looking for that just now, I actually was struck by how much I saw I'd posted here that reviewed these bull vs. bear alternatives. It inspired me to create the first chart below - taking my basic S&P 500 daily chart, and adding some notes. You can see that back in late June, the SPX was bouncing from its 200-day moving average, and we were looking at whether that bounce would continue or fail with the markets rolling over into, yes, the head-and-shoulders possibilities.

Then the market did drop down and poked under the H&S neckline levels, which as I noted on the chart, "took out the bulls." Then it turned around again, moved up to the trendline I started showing on the hourly charts, then leaped above the 912 level that I pointed out was a "game-changer," and therefore took out the bears!

Of course, I also must mention the Bradley model, which readers know projected an important swing high time window for July 14-15. Or at least, an important time window - perhaps the bulls would prefer to say it was an important low in the few days right before July 14 and not tied to those exact two dates. I cannot speak for the Bradley model, as I just consider it for information - once again, use the "Cycles on Bradley model" label at right for more info on that.

The next chart below is a weekly chart of the SPX and I've added a circle onto it. That circle shows where, if the SPX continues on up to one of the downtrend lines marked, it would meet up with the Fibonacci retrace level which is among the retracement levels I've been interested in for a long time - at the 961/963 area. Readers know I've also got an interest at 1912 in the Nasdaq composite, so we'll see. I've added a closeup at right of this weekly chart just showing the rise from the March lows, with the indicators (and a suggestion of a trendline but of course not "the only trendline").

I know that Tony Caldaro has also mentioned he has an OEW pivot at 961, and I think Andre Gratian (independently of course) has some levels there or nearby that he considers important, as well.

In addition to everything else we're looking at and factoring in - so long as the OBV (on balance volume) remains above its 30-period moving average (30 MA), the movement isn't weak. Of course, if the OBV is above its 30 MA and the other indicators are doing okay including the Slow Stochastics above its 50 midline, then that's definitely bullish (you can see that's been the case on the weekly, and swung up again during the movement this week). This set of indicators is something you should set and use among the technical indicators in your trading toolset, for whatever you are trading. That doesn't tell us the target, but for now I would view it as giving some support to the idea of closing in on the 961/963 area.

So okay, that's it for now! Will look forward to the updates as I mentioned, later this weekend for Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave analysis (and remember, when Tony has an alternate count, he's showing it for a reason). And tomorrow afternoon, the Turning Points update from Andre Gratian. I'll try to post some charts of other sectors too, including oil and the yen ... just gotta run for now. All the best to your weekend review!