Sunday, July 19, 2009

Smith & Wesson - a quick look at why we like it for a KI$$ portfolio

Here's a quick chart of Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (SWHC), one of the items I mentioned for a "KI$$" or "KISS" portfolio. You can see that it's starting to move up again from a consolidation. If not already in, then one strategy would be to wait to see if and when it moves above $7.52 and then buy (or add to a position). Of course this isn't a recommendation, just an analysis observation. I've been featuring it from time to time for several months - I remember posting about it when it was testing that 200-day moving average. So we've been in for a while, but took some off the table when it ran into the higher moving average resistance on the weekly chart. I never exited totally, and haven't bothered posting anything for a while ... you can see there wasn't much to say during the consolidation range recently. Now, assuming that it breaks over $7.52, it may move well again. One of the things I like about it is the volumes - they've done well on days with upward movement. From a fundamental standpoint, they've been reporting great results, so there doesn't seem to be a concern there.

The genesis of this comes from a recommendation of another analyst I track, so it isn't original. His comment actually was that the next bubble would include weapons. Not a comforting thought, and I can understand if some don't want to be part of this one. For those who aren't bothered by it, this can be an interesting ride as a position. Its peak so far was about $20/22, so if it runs to new highs then it can be a nice part of the portfolio.

Conversely, if it moved back under its May lows, then we'll sell it and step aside; I cannot see a reason to think it would remain bullish if it fell under the consolidation range's lows.

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