So UNG is almost to $12.00 - how you react depends on your trading style and current position. The conservative thing (and therefore the only way I can "advise" even though of course I cannot advise or recommend anyone do anything!) is to look for a reversal pattern, get the confirmation that $12 is "the low."If shorts start to cover that will start to provide some pickup in buying volumes, and same if wanna be longs start buying in.
Just as I am posting this it got to $12.01. Can a simple penny away from $12.00 finish the low? the point is to look for that reversal pattern - we want to see a pickup in buying volume, along with a beginning start on higher highs and higher lows. First should manifest in 5-minute chart, then 15-minute, then hourly bars, and finally should play out in daily bars chart over the next 2 weeks.
Many are looking whether it gets to $14 by this Friday's opex. My read of the put/call ratio indicates that $13 is a more reasonable target, as $14 may be too chancey - too many already looking for $14, so $13 an easier potential target by Friday. Just my thought.
UPDATE 5:30 pm - As I write this, UNG is up a little after hours to 12.10. We may very well not get a good sense until tomorrow whether it's going to make today's levels the levels that it reverses from and stamps as the low. If tomorrow is turnaround Tuesday, then it might even poke a slight new low, there's no way I can make a guarantee either way on that. It really needs to put 12.10 behind and make a serious effort on 12.30, and then on up from there of course! As for the options - here are the "max pain" data from the Option Pain CBOE (Max-Pain) Calculator from OptionPain.com, for UNG which I just pulled after hours - maybe you can see why I recommended today that $13 was a more reasonable choice if placing the options trades for this opex (not that I could really recommend playing options so close to opex, but it's worth seeing how the opex data and "max pain" are tracking):
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