Saturday, August 22, 2009

Big-picture S&P 500 charts depict the target and resistance area from 1041-1061

My weekly and monthly charts of the SPX have supported for a long time the view that, following the game-changing break above 912 in July, the next big level would test 1053. Well, Tony Caldaro's OEW update (you can see it posted here earlier today), talks about the 1041 level - and he's mentioned that price can swing 7 points from one of his pivots and still be testing it. Meaning, if price goes to or above 1049 then we should think about his 1061 pivot next. Myself - I'm intrigued that my 1053 + 7 equals 1060 ... That seems close enough, especially as my 1053 isn't a round number (slightly above 1053).

Anyone who remembers the TTC group that existed until October last year, remembers 1060. It was definitively broken during a week for which Merriman's weekend preview stated the influences represented a killer in financial markets. And it was. It also represented a break under a prior cycle low (from 2006, I believe), so a retest back to 1060 may really be what the market needs.

That level would also be a neat test of the fork trendline I drew some time ago, on my monthly SPX chart (below). I didn't draw the lines to make that result, I placed them by creating the Andrews fork and then adding the intermediate lines based on what looked appropriate from the significant prior swing levels, fitting also midway between the dominant fork lines. I've also posted in the past with this chart describing that the June 2010 timeframe would fit one of my Fibonacci time calculations for an important low. The roughly 600 SPX level that (if we're lucky) might contain that low and meet one Elliott Wave target on my own EW hypotheticals, would also meet up with one of these fork trendlines about June 2010.

Now - for the upcoming week or so - we should respect Tony's point that the market may soften next week but rally once more to these slightly higher levels. After all, that even fits with the monthly tendency for weak prices about the 26th, then strength into the new month-new money time. (Might be time to re-examine where that 401k contribution goes in early September.)

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