Posted: August 10th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |
Filed under: One-Day Market Map »
UPDATED: changed timestamp of this post to appear top of page
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge! (And today's map tracked great - even though we're only to reference it for timing and not so much relative price - but nice bonus when it does.)
Folks, after all that action last week, today seemed like just a quiet day with traders taking shelter in the harbor of an inside day in many or most equities indices. That didn't mean there weren't underlying cross currents with the dollar strengthening. It got close to the high it made about 10 days ago before its swoon last week testing that Fibonacci level. On the other side of the currencies trade, the euro made a continuation move down, close toward its 50-day moving average (and corresponding prior swing low). The yen managed some consolidation but I'll be surprised if it leads to much if any upside - it's got more risk to the downside now.
Gold bugs/bulls cannot have been too pleased seeing it also drop down by its own 50 dma. But, like equities, it's still premature to confirm any very bearish count on these. What we've got are the levels discussed and presented including this weekend - VIX up again, the QQQQ's challenged by (under) $39.82. And even our "string" seemed still effective, with the SPX getting support at 1002 (tho a little scare poke to 1001) before going back to 1007 - bigger picture for swing traders, the indices managed to stay over the lows of Wednesday/Thursday last week, but looking a little heavy. As bonds rebounded somewhat, while GS drooped, and the real estate and retail ETFs (IYR and RTH) sagging.
We'll have to see whether UNG and/or DAG can keep bullish potential - let alone oil or gasoline.
Enough to suggest our thesis of a pullback, or more, can be materializing .. And next comes pre-Fed Tuesday, also a day many traders enjoy as the Tuesday in pre-opex week. Indeed, it will be followed by FOMC day coinciding with Weird Wollie Wednesday! So daytraders can look foward to two "Game Days" in a row (double-header?).
Swing traders don't have a trigger day yet, and we also can't confirm a sell by either Elliott Wave, trendline or price support break. Just that array of alerts we already know - and the band within which price signals either continuation up or sell down looking tighter. We'll see if the action gives us more certainty tomorrow.
Meantime as always, careful out there, and happy market navigating!
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