Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Equities consolidate before strong possibility of another zag higher in this zigzag rally

Equities followed the ChartsEdge map well, even though it happened quicker! Then at the end of the day, there wasn't enough power for the push up effort to make progress. Tony Caldaro's update at his OEW website points out that price has now done enough for the S&P 500 to satisfy his 1041 pivot; I've posted copies of his SPX daily and hourly charts below (thanks Tony!). You can see the momentum decelerating. You can even see what looks like a "bear kiss" looming in the daily chart's MACD (though it can be invalidated if it crosses back up again). Tony also points out that price can try another push up, but that if price gets beyond 1048 (meaning 1049 and above) then it points toward his higher pivot which I think is 1061. As for myself - I'm thinking today's movement is very consistent with consolidating before another push up to really complete this move. Also, that 1018 most likely should provide support until this move is done.

Previously we had something I called a "string" with numbers like 977, 982, 987, 992 ... Those types of numbers seem somewhat still working although they seem now more like 1018, 1023, 1028, 1033. But I don't want to make much of this because I do think it's changing now. We need to focus closely on the wave pattern so long as above 1018 and finishing out a fifth wave. It could finish fairly soon, or could extend - indicators strength will clue us in for that.

Recently I'd made a post saying there was a sell signal. There was, when the McClellan Oscillator went under zero. Then it came back up again ... It's still tracing out another triangular formation. The Summation Index isn't strong, but hasn't really rolled down obviously. Also I'm posting the NYSE advance/decline (cumulative), which has negative divergence in its own StochRSI.

Is another push up to another new high guaranteed? No, but I've got to say, it doesn't "look right" to be finished yet. As for those still perplexed by this rally, know this - as Tony has explained, this is a "zigzag" which is by nature a very sharp movement. It's sharp while it's moving. But when it's done, it's done - so let's tread increasingly carefully!

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