Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Equities indices' weaker momentum combines with Objective Elliott Wave to suggest the pullback remains due

Equities indices' advance today was clued in by yesterday's performance and having ChartsEdge's map helped too of course! Now, I know Andre Gratian is working with his analysis methods and projections to his subscribers, so I'll just borrow from the equally helpful charts of Tony Caldaro which incorporate his Objective Elliott Wave. Notice the SPX hourly yesterday bounced from its 34-period exponential moving average (EMA). Today's advance in what looked like a strong open with afternoon shenanigans wasn't very strong judging by the indicators. It tried but couldn't make 1012 into support and fell back again toward 997 (Oops meant 1007!!). There are clues of strength, such as the QQQQ trying to regain $39.82, but neither the VIX nor the dollar look convinced to remain going down. It's enough to make me wonder, is there a deeper problem with the idea of simply pulling back to about 962 or 935/940 before a good run toward 1053?

Many traders either stood aside in the afternoon or traded greatly reduced position size, since the usual Fed-sparked swings don't normally allow a good enough edge to offset the volatility risk (in either direction). Tomorrow should bring back some normalcy (if you can call trading normal!). We'll be looking for clues of broken resistance or support, and on weakness to see if that 34-hour EMA breaks. We're getting closer to opex, even if we can't count on landing right at max pain on Friday next week.

(Tony's site, and Andre's site, both are in the sites of interest at the right side of the page here). Tony's public charts link is CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987"

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