How a Dow Theorist and cycles technician views the equities rally in historical phasing: Tim Wood's update

Tim Wood of Cycles News & Views (site always included in the other sites of interest at the right side of the page here) has issued another public update about his views of the equities rally. Since he's an accomplished cycles technician, as well as classical Dow Theorist, I pay attention. This is only a quote, so you'll want to read the whole article at Bear Market Phasing (FinancialSense.com, 8/14/2009):

It seems that everyone is pretty well convinced that we are now operating within the context of a “new bull market.” Rally, yes, but, “new bull market,” I think not. Let me clarify my position on this advance. I told subscribers in my March research letter, before the March low was made, that price was moving into an intermediate-term low and that once this low was made a more meaningful bear market advance should unfold. I specifically stated that this rally would not be something I would be willing to sit on my shorts through and that the advance out of this expected low would be a meaningful trading event. It was then, the week of March 13th, that my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator triggered an intermediate-term buy signal. That signal remained intact until the week of June 19th. It was then the week of July 17th that another intermediate-term buy was given by the intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator. The key now is to follow this indicator until it turns back down and then to monitor the developments surrounding that downturn for clues as to whether the advance is finally over, or if we are merely seeing another buying opportunity within the context of this ongoing bear market rally. The point I want to make clear here is that we did foresee this advance, and that as of this writing it is still intact. But when we back up and look at the bigger picture, I maintain that this is a bear market rally.

According to Dow theory, each bull and bear market period has three separate phases. This phasing is an important aspect of the Dow theory that is most often overlooked. I have spoken in the past about this phasing and today I want to address this topic again.

Just so you know, while Tim couches his discussion in this public update by comparing to the markets of the 1960's-1970's, his subscription analysis has also been providing an in-depth review and comparison to the market movements of the Great Depression-era 1930's too.

Bottom line though, his outlook for swing position type purposes is very measured on the basis of his indicators, especially his cycle turn indicator. He always points out that his cycle turn indicator is the main guide he uses for trading/investing purposes.