How the markets look for opex Friday (and beyond)

Equities got another chance today to try for the brass ring of a gap fill, such as the SPX trying for 1002, but handicapped by a twist low this morning only managed to tag up to 999.61 before weakening off. Actually - that was probably enough to achieve the gap fill, even though it couldn't get to 1002. Today, I tweeted about the banking index BKX which was late to the breakout party - and by the way, that isn't bullish for the banks. Anyway, it can be readying for a bullish triangle breakout, but can also be poised to break down if it's a triangle trap. BKX needs to stay above 43.23 to keep the bulish triangle idea valid. As for the broad indices, without even getting to the fine trendlines that Andre showed subscribers (which you may be able to somewhat fill in if you look at his update newsletter here this past weekend, use the Turning Points label), you can see the stall was at moving average resistance on the hourly chart (below). The first lower target is at or slightly below 970, as it looks like the prior 4th wave level that's a classic first place to look in Elliott Wave theory. Lower is the Fibonacci/pivot around 961/962. Further down is chart resistance around 940-943, though 950 may be some support too.

Similarly in the BKX, the $40 level looks like chart support, and the there's a gap fill and prior consolidation range highs around $38-39.

For swing and position traders, the bigger question is whether the recent highs are a more significant top and pointing to new lows. Or just a moderate pullback. There should be more clues on further weakness.

The wild card will be if the BKX thrusts up from the triangle and equities move higher instead of slumping. Our levels to watch obviously encompass the QQQQ's at $39.82 and the SPX at 1002, or 1014.

PS - I see that Tony Caldaro is provisionally marking OEW intermediate wave "b" as done, and now the markets expected to proceed upward in intermediate wave "c" which can have higher targets like 1040-something or 1053. And Tony's right that 990 should serve as support for this scenario. You can see Tony's charts at his public charts list link: CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987. So this can be an exciting time to pit one set of Elliott wave and rally projections, against a more immediately bearish set, and see whether 990 can hold to keep equities pushing higher ... Or not. It's reasonable to think the triangle question in the BKX (and the possibility of a H&S in GS) goes hand-in-glove with this fork in the road. Sorry for mixing metaphors - but it will be a fairly bright line for trading purposes. And an exciting dichotomy to track in asset prices and technical analysis.

So much for a would-be boring late-summer session!