Thursday, August 6, 2009

If the U.S. dollar really wants UUP from here, these indicators are a start so let's watch these trendlines

Here's a daily chart of the ETF for the US dollar, UUP. It shows that the indicators are starting to turn from the downtrending position. Obviously it's early yet, so there's no guarantee that the important Fibonacci level the dollar reached will turn from a pivot into support from here. I've marked some preliminary trendlines based on the recent chart pattern it traced out on the decline. Notice that the Fibonacci level I've described can be consistent with a large second wave pullback, meaning that there's some possibility the dollar might actually go into a large wave 3 up. Two alternative views are that it merely goes into a large C wave up that would still take the dollar index above 90; or simply, that this is a "b" wave or second-wave correction upward before the dollar rolls over to yet lower levels.

We do still have a Fibonacci level at 73.58 in the dollar index so I don't want to be complacent that it can finish a low at 77.92 and move upward for a long time from here. However, I'm certainly not going to stand in its way, and will actually be playing this beginning with an early entry on the dollar long side, especially if it can close above yesteray's high and then start putting in positive movement above the 77.92 pivot in the dollar index. Then we'll see from its movement whether it can turn into something more bullish for the dollar (even if it means something more bearish for other currencies or asset classes).

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