Monday, August 24, 2009

The little rally that couldn't - equities weakened as banks and financials fizzled

It's enough to make me wonder sometimes if the ChartsEdge map itself becomes a catalyst for the market to speed up! Well not really, but the last "stick" effort fizzled. During the day I tweeted that I thought there should still be one more wave up, even as I pointed out that losing 1030 support was a negative. Well, counting waves on the fly can be challenging especially when the market gets fatigued like this. I also tweeted early on that the banking index was at risk of finishing its wave 5 thrust up from that triangle. (And you know what I posted about GS yesterday here.). Long story short - as it were - the risk is that the banks' "5" corresponds to a similar movement in the broad indices, and then what larger wave did it also complete? I'll read Tony Caldaro's evening update for his thoughts. Given that the SPX fell back from a "close enough" test of his 1041 pivot ... I'm not going to feel very complacent!

Just so you know, if you're wondering about the ChartsEdge forecast for this week showing tomorrow a low and then up, it can still work - either the additional wave up needs to start from lower, or the bearish view is that it diminishes into a pullback (upward) bounce. We cannot rely on those forecasts and maps to point to price levels, just turn times. And, there's still a holiday followed by new month, new money - so we also should be cautious and look for confirmation of either a top, or of a continuation of the rally wave.



Update: I read Tony's update, which comes in via site feed (or use his site link) at right. He's marking the wave 3 complete, so my tweets of the idea of last fifth wave to complete wave 3 weren't wrong - just a question how deep the wave 4 correction goes ... and now in the wave 4 pullback ... Then to see what we get from wave 5. His chart on this from his charts link, CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987, is below:

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