Marking off whistle-stops on the financial markets' fast train - oil, dollar, euro and gold

As fast as the financial markets' train has been moving lately, there are some looking at whether a breather is in order - I don't know that it can be guaranteed, as the movement today was strong with indicators confirming. But given some of the levels I've been pointing out that are being tested today, it is possible that a breather or pullback might show up in the next day or so. Below are my charts of gold, the dollar, and oil (WTIC) as they are looking after today's action (I previously posted the euro chart). Yes, the dollar got to 77.92 today, and yes, the euro acted on the other side by getting to 144. And yes, oil spiked up and looks like it wants to break above its prior swing high. Will these markets reverse from here, as the VIX did not make a new low while equities markets generally moved higher? Well, it is possible for some reaction to occur now, which might cause trend changes. But unless and until a trend reversal shows up - which is not showing yet in the indicators - I think it is prudent to point out levels that these markets may get to, in case there is not a trend reversal here. The dollar could get to 73.58, the euro could get to 146, and oil (WTIC) could get to $85/90.

What about equities? I have mentioned the 1012/1014 level in SPX, and there's also reason to think of 1053, although it can certainly make sense for a pullback to occur before we see numbers going higher than 1012/1014 SPX. The QQQQ's have a chance to trend reverse from having reached $39.82 but we have to let them show whether or not that will happen. Previously I thought that would certainly be the trend reversal level for the QQQQ's - now, it's difficult to say that. Am I just being caught up in the bullish sentiment, recorded in that article that I posted a link to in my UBTNB3 blogspot over the weekend?

As I've said for months now - so much depends on the dollar. The weakness of the dollar is supposed to be good for equities, and also good for gold and oil (and of course the euro). Now that the dollar has chosen to test 77.92, we've got to let it prove whether or not it can retain 77.92 and move higher again. If not (or if it starts to and then loses the 77.92 level again) then the 73.58 level awaits below. My best guess now is that if the dollar sinks lower to 73.58, that should support a good move in both dollar and oil (and obviously euro).

Whether the dollar losing support of 77.92 and going to 73.58 would be bullish for equities, I don't know if I can say that. Maybe, on the theory that any dollar down is good for equities. Contrary argument would be that it scares people away from US investments. I just don't know that I can really predict that aspect.

What I can assure you, however, is this: take this dollar move one step at a time. Watch carefully to see whether - or not - it trend reverses back up from this test of 77.92. If it does trend reverse back from, that will be significant as I mentioned. But, if it cannot regain 77.92 and make it support, then we need to think about it going to 73.58.