Oil's sideways price movement has been shaping up as something like a wedge under key Fibonacci and pivot resistance, and channel uptrend line support. Is it a consolidation before thrusting higher to the $85-90 level many were looking for (and would also be a higher-level 50% retrace at $90)? Or a churning under resistance before rolling over again? Readers here know I've been pessimistic on oil's prospects, and have been pointing to my monthly chart (updated below, under my daily chart of it - $WTIC). For the bulls, it did bounce back yesterday above the daily trendline and Bollinger Band midline. Breaking above the resistance pivot and clearing $74 would get it going. Conversely, breaking under the trendline (basically, falling under $67-68) would likely point to more downside.
On the monthly chart, not only did it stall out under resistance like the Bollinger Band midline and 50-month moving average. Also, the RSI indicators are testing midlines from below. These are bearish signs. Even if the daily bar price manages to surge up to $85 or $90 ("hurricane"?), it might only cap off a "b" wave at that level. But it also remains possible that oil just cannot manage it and rolls over. Either way, retesting the lows remains possible in an ensuing "c" wave down.
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