Thursday, August 13, 2009

S&P 500 momentum flagging as dollar debates whether to sink again or rally

Indicators confirm that the momentum which propelled the equities markets higher from the March lows has waned. Or, will we see the US dollar roll lower (perhaps my next number for the dollar index ($USD) at 73.58?) while equities recover and march up to, say, S&P 500 at 1053? I certainly echo Tony Caldaro's point that marking the rally leg as completed last week should be considered tentative. Still, the indicators suggest that a pullback at least is due. Intraday it's a good idea to watch the 13- and 34-hour exponential moving averages. Breaking under those is likely to be a good clue, along with watching the QQQQ's for a move back under $39.82.

Below are charts of the dollar index, and the yen ($XJY). These also show that currencies can still see dollar strengthening. the dollar can still make higher levels, so we're keeping an eye on it. The yen snapped back to its 200-day moving average - assuming it continues to face such resistance, it retains the ability to move lower again.
So we keep edging closer!

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