Thursday, August 13, 2009

S&P 500 reaching to extend price above near-term support as the dollar stayed back (but bonds rose)

The S&P 500 chopped back and forth today, very nicely following the ChartsEdge daily map which helped daytraders get some visibility into the intraday cycles. Put together with our numbers (and I believe Andre and others must have similar numbers in these areas), and it was easy enough for daytraders. Swing traders are still sizing this up to see whether and when the SPX is going to roll over from the test around 1012/1014 on Fibonacci and 1018 on Tony Caldaros OEW pivot. Speaking of Tony's Objective Elliott Wave, below is his hourly SPX chart (thank you Tony). His markings are the horizontal light blue lines, and the red and green lines marking the StochRSI indicator. Mine are the rest of the blue lines and circles. Just trying to give some definition to what we are seeing. The drop Tuesday to the 34-hour exponential moving average (EMA) went under a line I marked from the "wave 4" point, but the subsequent rally has kissed back along that line. Either price is giving a good imitation of trying to get back to the 1018 pivot and try higher, or otherwise that StochRSI "triangle" I marked may break to the downside and send price under the lower "trendline" I'm hypothesizing as well as below the 34-hour EMA.

I realize silver went higher today - figures it would do that right after I posted about a head and shoulders pattern forming in the SLV chart - but that head and shoulders possibility remains valid because it's on the weekly chart and price didn't go higher enough today to rule that out. Naturally we can expect whatever happens there to be in tandem with gold and the dollar - will we see the dollar roll over and go lower again, giving a great boost to gold and silver? As much as I'm not expecting that based on the charts, I'll obviously go with it if it happens. Too soon to say yet as the dollar remains in contention - for now.

Bonds rose after a successful auction today - we could make arguments either way whether that's good for equities ... it certainly kept bonds away from the potential next leg down they were threatening since they almost lost support in the past few days!

I believe the Dow Transports may have a higher price level to reach for their Fibonacci retrace to their highs, but since they march to a different drummer in price and time, I am not looking for that to be the element that dictates whether and when the broader indices engage in any movement down.

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