Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Shanghai Composite an example of Fibonacci test in big-picture debate between bull market vs. bear flag

These charts of the Shanghai Composite index ($SSEC) show an example of an index that's tested up to its .382 Fibonacci retracement around the time there's some talk it's gotten to a p/e ratio of 37. There's information that individual investors are entering with new accounts at the fastest pace in 18 months, now that the index has gained 90%. It's been a bullish run but will it be seen as a bear flag? Not only did it poke above the .382 but also looks like it made the upper trendline I marked along a parallel channel; looks vulnerable if back under that .382 line.

The weekly chart shows overbought with RSI over 70. The daily chart shows the RSI dropped under 70 and just yesterday tested back up to it, which can be a form of "bear kiss-back". Next question would be, what level if it drops? Looks like moving average support may converge soon near the lower channel line so that may be one area to look for support.


Then again, if it falls under that .382 then later regains above it, that would suggest it has higher levels still ahead. In that case, there's the 50% retracement where there's also chart resistance from a prior swing high (internal 4th wave?) during the drop.

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