Thoughts for KI$$ traders; or, "ask me no questions and I'll tell you no Fibs" (Fibonacci levels) on the S&P 500

Here are 3 charts of the S&P 500 (SPX), that you can reference as part of reviewing the analyses presented here in previous posts this weekend. And a quick note for KI$$ traders/investors - since the whole idea of KI$$ (Keeping It Simple or Slow for ca$h trader$/investor$) is to use clear signals for buy/hold/sell decisions with cash accounts. (Or for any swing trader who likes to keep it simple.) If you know how to read the indicators, you know that the SPX has been confirming the bullish mode that price has been displaying. The level that we're interested in now is marked at the area or range around 1014 to 1018 (it can go up to 1020 or perhaps 1022 but no guarantee). We're going to see one of 3 things: either the market will soon close down underneath the low of the most recent swing high - that will be a sell signal which we will so state in a post here (probably even quicker via Twitter). This is the one that looks increasingly likely - check out the monthly chart, see the levels we just hit at 1018 with the 200-month moving average (right when the Nasdaq Composite is hitting its 89-week exponential moving average.)

Second, it could just consolidate sideways for a while - I would only see that as possible if the Elliott Wave pattern hasn't completed the last fifth wave up for this part of the rally. Meaning, if there is some consolidation, I don't really believe it would last very long.

Or, it will just continue marching up to 1053 - unlikely but theoretically possible. What's more likely to be the puzzle for us to figure out will be, assuming we get the pullback, is how deep it goes and whether it will get support (at Andre's 940 or Tony's 935, perhaps??) and then move up again.

What I'm trying to suggest - without making "trading recommendations" - is that if we see a trigger bar sell as I described above, then a valid KI$$ approach is to cash out longs and consider short or defensive positions if you're a short-term trader. Others might go into cash and look for the next opportunity - be patient in case it takes a week or so.

By the way - Dow Theory says that the Transports just joined the Industrials in a buy signal by going above the January highs, on Friday. Yes, it is true! That doesn't tell us there won't be a pullback, however. Instead, it belongs on the "bullish" column in the "bulls vs. bears" debate that the market's caught between now.

Here's the daily chart - stochastics look ready to turn down, MACD not far behind; if Monday closes under Friday's low it will look bearish. There's the FOMC on Wednesday ... I don't know if most KI$$ traders want to assume the FOMC will push the markets right up again if there's significant weakness Monday/Tuesday. We can look to see if the SPX drops under the key support level that Andre mentioned in his update, posted earlier this evening (prior post).

Here's the SPX weekly chart - this is the one showing that the SPX just retraced 38.2% of the drop from 2007 highs:

Here's the SPX monthly chart - This shows the SPX touched its 200-month moving average on Friday, at 1018. I know it looks like there's a fork trendline a bit higher it could reach - and yes, that remains theoretically possible - we'll just have to see if the markets have what it takes to also get the QQQQ's above their 50% retracement and all the other factors I mentioned earlier this weekend.

But oh yes - I mainly wanted to post these as images to go along with all those analyses, so here it is:

(click on any chart to see it larger/more clearly)