Friday, August 7, 2009

Yen dropping fast as predicted - here's the projection

Yesterday or the day before, I predicted that the yen would drop fast if it lost support at the recent swing low. It's happening today! You can search using the "Yen" label for prior posts about what's going on in its chart. I'll update more again this weekend. Bottom line is, the projection is to $83 in the $XJY (FXY) from here, so I do not consider this a buy the dip type situation.

Of course it is possible that it may try to regain the broken channel line. And, it hasn't yet moved under the prior swing low points of April or June. Given my analysis to date of the yen, however, my sense is that it likely will do so. And further, that this may be a wave 3 or "C" type movement which is why I predicted that the lost support would cause the yen to move downward swiftly.

The projection to $83 is a Fibonacci based projection I developed months ago, and can be refined based on assessing how the yen moves downward. We will also watch to see if it violates channel support on the longer-term charts, because if so, then the projection obviously can be to even lower levels.

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