Tuesday, September 29, 2009

About Gold; and: Fiat currency devaluation - Article by Tony Caldaro

After my terse remark this morning I'll add a terse explanation: I'm basically bullish on gold but just not convinced there isn't more correction still ahead for gold before it goes into the next really bullish phase. Currently it looks to me still poised to go either way, depending on whether the dollar gets support anytime soon or continues to work lower and retest or make new lows. As for the underlying fundamentals, I'd like to refer to an article Tony Caldaro wrote and posted to his site 9/28:09, at http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!54130.entry. He includes a few charts, and here's a quote from part of his article:
From 1946 to the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system made fixed currencies the norm. In 1971, however, the United States government abandoned the gold standard, so that the US dollar was no longer a fixed currency, and most of the world's currencies followed suit. From then on, the world's currencies have been floating against each other. In the first decade, the 1970's, the inflationary effects of an unlimited fiat currency drove interest rates to around 20%. Then for the better part of the next two decades the floating currency system worked well. Currencies with loose monetary policies were devalued against currencies with tighter monetary standards. In example, in 1985 the USD peaked, and then proceeded to lose half of its value against the YEN by 1995. In 1991 the ECU was introduced, it went sideways until 1995, and then began to decline with the YEN, against the USD into the end of the decade. During this entire period of time, the shelved currency, Gold, essentially went sideways.

Of course there's more, so I think you'll find it a good read. Whether or not the dollar finds support and can make a significant run, with gold doing more significant correction before its own next big bullish wave, you can count me in as seeing the currency perils that make gold attractive in the long run. Just so ya know.

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