Are U.S. Treasuries getting ready to surprise to the upside?

Treasuries have been moving sideways for quite a while now. Often it means consolidation before another move up - although when it occurs underneath the 200-day moving average, it can be "churning" before another leg down. Those who are bearish with short positions, however, may have to stop out and/or switch to go long if Treasuries break upward. The TLT daily chart, below, shows the indicators reflecting enough strength still to point upward. I've been thinking $101-102 is a reasonable objective even though a higher rebound is possible. The monthly chart of $USB, also below, shows that Treasury bonds really haven't broken long-term support - again justifying a cautiously positive view for the near-term.

Fundamentals are concerning for the long-term, of course. But for now, it's a matter of comparing alternatives. Some players might be TMAR'ing profits from the equities, commodities, and non-dollar currencies rallies. Might some of that get parked in Treasuries until the markets provide another set of great buying opportunities (probably at lower levels)? That could be a way of "packing a parachute" using terminology like Raymond Merriman did a couple of weeks ago. Thanks to nakedcapitalism, we've also got the word that PIMCO's bond guru is seeing things that way - Bill Gross: Sell Risky Assets and Buy Treasuries (9/22/09).