As one Elliott Wave analyst grows more bullish, SPX rockets to monthly chart pivot level

The power of pivots and Fibonacci levels continued to work their magic as the SPX, having cleared 1049, used third-wave momentum to go directly to test 1061 - and then even got to 1069 to show it could point even higher. Tony Caldaro (in his OEW Wednesday update, see site link or feed at right side of the page) still looks to 1107 before it's done, but dusted off a pivot at 1090 to accompany his warning it's getting more overbought. Meanwhile, another Elliott Wave analyst, Glenn Neely with his NEoWave Institute, has issued a retraction of his view about a next drop going to new lows, instead projecting a large contracting triangle. Apparently this would be its B wave up; then C down, D up, and E down would have higher lows and lower highs with that contracting movement. Should we take his capitulation as a contrarian, bearish clue?

I do find meaning in 1060, and also in 1068 as the SPX just "met" the midline of its Bollinger Band on the monthly chart - below. This certainly adds to my monthly chart fork trendline as a vital test! The BB midline is a very important technical level. Then too, the dollar continuing to drop is "helpful" but even Tony Caldaro thinks it'll change soon, and I've got my 73.58 idea for $USD as a likely turning level based on Fibonacci analysis. On my monthly SPX chart below, you can see that price broke through the BB midline in the important rise from the 2003 low, then later "rode" it as it progressed to new highs. Will price break through the BB midline on this test? If it does, that's one indicia of real bullishness. I'm having a hard time seeing that, but it will probably be some while before we really know.

Let me also note on my QQQQ weekly chart below, the Fibonacci .618 retrace level is just above at 43.34. Since it left the 39.82 in the dust, if the QQQQ's work out a test of 43.33 after whatever method they use to complete the current wave up, we'll have to mind carefully whether it really is just a wave 2 up of C down, implying much more pain ahead.

I respect Tony's projection to the 1107+ area as he describes, but I'm going to consider the monthly BB midline as an extremely important level. With the QQQQ's in overbought territory per the weekly chart's standard RSI, the market's "momentum moose" movement is still good so long as a reversal pattern doesn't trigger - and the advance/decline data are still good - but now there's more meaning to the levels we reached today. The NYSE advance/decline has been amazingly positive on the rally; the Nasdaq advance/decline, oddly not as good. If price gets turned back from these levels, the monthly chart bearish fork still points down.